Before Stage I
Notes on Multi-Cancer Early Detection

The science and clinical implementation of multi-cancer early detection.

A free ebook: the prologue, the newsletter's first 11 posts gathered as chapters, and a bonus chapter.

I have no financial relationships with GRAIL, Exact Sciences, Guardant Health, or any company developing MCED technology. This newsletter represents independent analysis and does not constitute medical or investment advice. Full disclosures

Michael LaPelusa, MD

Michael LaPelusa, MD

I am a hematologist and medical oncologist. I completed internal medicine residency at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and hematology and medical oncology fellowship at MD Anderson Cancer Center. My research has focused on how liquid biopsies can be incorporated into clinical practice, with publications in journals such as the Nature portfolio and presentations at ASCO and ESMO.

Before medical school, I worked as a Human Health and Performance Specialist at NASA Johnson Space Center. I supported the development of a protocol for DNA sequencing in space using the MinION, a USB-powered portable nanopore sequencer. This work contributed to DNA sequencing aboard the International Space Station during Expedition 48.

Before Stage I is my way of maintaining the part of my professional life that involves reading papers, thinking carefully about what they mean, and writing the pertinent points down to share with others.

Disclosures

Before Stage One is written by Michael LaPelusa, MD in his personal capacity. Views expressed are his own and do not represent the views of any institution. Content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as medical, legal, business, investment, or tax advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to undergo, avoid, prescribe, or order any medical test or treatment, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult their own physicians and advisers regarding clinical, financial, and legal decisions. The author does not hold positions in any company discussed unless explicitly disclosed in the post. See full disclosures.

Latest Posts - From Newest to Oldest

Journal Club: NHS-Galleri (GRAIL)

NHS-Galleri is the largest randomized controlled trial ever conducted for an MCED test. It was launched in England in 2021 and enrolled 142,924 adults aged 50 to 79 with no symptoms or suspicion of cancer.

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The Competitive Landscape

In the two years since GRAIL's Galleri became commercially available in the US, a second MCED test was launched commercially at a lower price point (Exact Sciences’ Cancerguard), a third company obtained FDA Breakthrough Device Designation for its own MCED test (Guardant’s Shield MCD), Medicare…

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Regulation and Reimbursement

In the US, a clinical laboratory test can reach patients through one of two main pathways.

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The Case Against the Blood Test

If you've been reading this book, you know that I believe MCED testing has a trajectory that points toward a future where MCED testing may be integrated into preventive care, like mammograms and colonoscopies are.

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Journal Club: Shield MCD (Guardant)

In April 2025, Guardant presented clinical validation data for its MCED test (Shield MCD) at AACR. The presentation evaluated samples from 778 participants in a blinded case-control design (similar to CCGA and DETECT-A). Of these 778 participants, 375 had a known cancer diagnosis, while 403 did not have cancer.

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Journal Club: DETECT-A and Cancerguard (Exact Sciences)

The CancerSEEK test, the MCED test used in DETECT-A, was an early version of what became Cancerguard. The CancerSEEK concept was first described in a landmark 2018 paper published in Science. That study was a case-control analysis of 1,005 patients with known, nonmetastatic cancers of eight types…

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Journal Club: PATHFINDER 2 (GRAIL)

PATHFINDER 2 was a prospective, multi-center, interventional study conducted at healthcare institutions across the US and Canada, spanning academic centers like Mayo Clinic, Duke, Oregon Health & Science University, and Weill Cornell, alongside community sites like Ochsner Health, Henry Ford, and Hoag Memorial.

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Journal Club: PATHFINDER (GRAIL)

PATHFINDER was a prospective cohort study conducted at seven US health networks, including both oncology and primary care outpatient clinics. Between December 2019 and December 2020, the investigators enrolled a "convenience sample" (a non-probabilistic sampling method where participants are chosen…

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Journal Club: CCGA (GRAIL)

The Circulating Cell-free Genome Atlas (CCGA) was a large, prospective, case-control, observational study that enrolled 15,254 participants across 142 sites in North America between August 2016 and February 2019. 8,584 participants had a recent cancer diagnosis, and 6,670 did not.

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Statistical Terms

In the posts ahead, I will delve into clinical studies. Those posts are full of statistical terms like sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and more. I encourage you to bookmark this post, as I'll reference the terms in it frequently.

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How MCED Testing Works

I'm going to start with a primer on biology. If you already have a working knowledge of DNA, gene expression, and epigenetics, skip ahead to "More about Methylation" below.

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Why I'm Doing This

My name is Michael LaPelusa and I'm a hematologist and medical oncologist. I graduated from hematology and medical oncology fellowship at MD Anderson Cancer Center in 2026. This post is about why I wrote this book.

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